Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.048477 0.055112 0.062528 0.071471 0.082010 0.094098 0.109097
2025-12-14 0.037660 0.045636 0.055278 0.067917 0.084231 0.104835 0.133239
2025-12-21 0.028784 0.036709 0.046916 0.061260 0.081277 0.108804 0.150582
2025-12-28 0.024139 0.032310 0.043495 0.060324 0.085724 0.123874 0.188064
2026-01-04 0.020908 0.029278 0.041413 0.060917 0.092736 0.145030 0.243164
2026-01-11 0.018069 0.026347 0.038990 0.060591 0.098529 0.166611 0.309316
2026-01-18 0.015747 0.023825 0.036769 0.060194 0.104367 0.190858 0.394014
2026-01-25 0.013572 0.021201 0.033947 0.058226 0.107065 0.210797 0.482882
2026-02-01 0.011625 0.018664 0.030861 0.055164 0.106975 0.225586 0.571291
2026-02-08 0.010412 0.017206 0.029439 0.055022 0.113147 0.257918 0.735140
2026-02-15 0.009406 0.015967 0.028218 0.055056 0.119945 0.295844 0.955444
2026-02-22 0.008618 0.015018 0.027397 0.055795 0.128921 0.345412 1.279445
2026-03-01 0.007890 0.014101 0.026536 0.056392 0.138318 0.404110 1.740131
2026-03-08 0.007103 0.012963 0.025039 0.055174 0.142532 0.449932 2.231372
2026-03-15 0.006203 0.011486 0.022596 0.051086 0.137000 0.457904 2.531459
2026-03-22 0.005729 0.010826 0.021854 0.051253 0.145097 0.527914 3.454417
2026-03-29 0.005380 0.010386 0.021540 0.052526 0.157713 0.631060 5.044648
2026-04-05 0.005015 0.009863 0.020951 0.052912 0.167665 0.733932 7.174717
2026-04-12 0.004680 0.009364 0.020346 0.053125 0.177359 0.849237 10.283074
2026-04-19 0.004309 0.008741 0.019339 0.051877 0.180798 0.934029 13.710899
2026-04-26 0.003929 0.008058 0.018083 0.049561 0.178827 0.983672 17.074967
2026-05-03 0.003698 0.007695 0.017611 0.049727 0.188382 1.134152 25.441115
2026-05-10 0.003492 0.007372 0.017197 0.049999 0.198877 1.314165 39.217630